StockInterview.com

March 19, 2007
By Julie Ickes

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Cameco Corp’s Risk Factors at Cigar Lake
On Sunday night, Cameco Corp issued its latest plans for Cigar Lake: A production startup by 2010, subject to regulatory approvals and timely remediation.

After issuing 7 bullet points highlighting the superlative quality of Cigar Lake, the company began the meat of the news release with the statement, “This information should be read in the context of the risk factors outlined later in the release.”

Instead of burying the risk factors at the bottom of the news release, we wished to highlight these risks upfront. Many investors generally read the beginnings of news releases and not the entirety of those announcements. We also highlighted an unusual statement made after the company announced its ‘forward-looking statement.’

These are verbatim risk factors as announced by Cameco Corp in the company’s March 18, 2007 news release, entitled “Cameco Announces Plans for Cigar Lake.”
Risk Factors
Cigar Lake is a challenging deposit to develop and mine. These challenges include control of groundwater, weak ground formations, and radiation protection. The sandstone overlying the basement rocks contains significant water at hydrostatic pressure.

Freezing the ground is expected to result in several enhancements to the ground conditions, including: (1) minimizing the risk of water inflows from saturated rock above the unconformity; (2) reducing radiation exposure from radon dissolved in the ground water; and (3) increasing rock stability. However, freezing will only reduce, not eliminate, these challenges.

There is also the possibility of a water inflow during the drilling of holes to freeze the ground. Therefore, the risk of water inflows at Cigar Lake remains. The consequences of another water inflow will depend upon the magnitude, location and timing of any such event, but could include a significant delay in Cigar Lake's remediation, development or production, a material increase in costs, a loss of mineral reserves or require Cameco to give notice to many of its customers that it is declaring an interruption in planned uranium supply. Such consequences could have a material adverse impact on Cameco. Water inflows are generally not insurable.

Cigar Lake's remediation and production schedules are based upon certain assumptions regarding the condition of the underground infrastructure at the mine. The condition of this underground infrastructure, however, will not be known until the mine is dewatered. If the underground infrastructure has been impaired, this could adversely impact our schedules and cost estimates.

The outcome of each phase of remediation will impact the schedule of each subsequent phase of remediation and the planned commencement of production in 2010. For example, if the plug is not successful in securing the inflow area, then ground freezing, already incorporated in the remediation plan, will be utilized to secure the inflow area. If this situation occurs, there could be a delay in the remediation schedule and the commencement of production.

Remediation and production schedules will be impacted by regulatory approvals. We have not yet received regulatory approval to drill four drill holes for dewatering the mine during the first phase of the remediation plan. This approval is required to move forward with our planned dewatering strategy. Working with the regulatory authorities to receive approvals for additional corrective actions which may result from current inflow investigations may impact our remediation and production schedules.

Readers are cautioned that conclusions, projections and estimates set out in this news release are subject to the qualifications, assumptions and exclusions which are detailed in the technical report. To fully understand the summary information set out above, the technical report that will be filed on SEDAR should be read in its entirety.

Cameco Corp’s Disclaimer of ‘Forward-Looking Statement’

Cameco’s March 18th news release also had an interesting wrinkle. The company disclaimed its forward-looking statements issued in the preceding paragraph:

“Although Cameco believes that the assumptions inherent in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on these statements, which only apply as of the date of this report. Cameco disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.”

Therefore, if new information should come to light about Cigar Lake, Cameco Corp is under no obligation to revise its forward-looking statement.
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