StockInterview.com

April 22, 2007
By Julie Ickes

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Off Market Transactions Below Current Spot Uranium Price

Fuel Supply Manager Says: ‘Uncontrollable Price Spikes’ Ahead

Uranium Transaction Volume. Courtesy of Trade Tech’s Nuclear Market Review. For weekly changes in the spot uranium price, please visit www.uranium.info
According to Friday’s Nuclear Market Review (NMR), two off-market transactions were reported this past week for more than 500 thousand pounds U3O8 equivalent. NMR editor Treva Klingbiel wrote, “Both transactions were in negotiations prior to the steep price rise last week and reflect prices below the currently published levels.” NMR did not provide exact details of the sales price(s). The weekly spot uranium price indicator remained unchanged at US$113/pound.

No transactions took place in the long-term market. No new demand emerged. Uranium transaction volume for 2007 year-to-date remains the third lowest for the past decade. Only transaction volumes in 1997 and 2001 were lower at this point of the annual cycle.

NMR also reported on the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle conference which took place this past week in Budapest, Hungary. MIT’s Center for International Studies senior researcher Thomas Neff discussed whether it was still possible to substitute enrichment for uranium. Neff concluded, “Given existing prices there is not sufficient enrichment capacity currently available for utilities to truly optimize the tradeoff between enrichment and uranium.” In recent presentations in Geneva and Zurich, Neff expressed concern about the uranium mining and enrichment industries providing sufficient nuclear fuel to utilities to meet the demands of the ongoing nuclear renaissance.

Others expressed similar concerns. Synatom’s Fuel Supply manager Gerard Pauluis told conference attendees, “As the market matures, we will experience uncontrollable price spikes.” Urenco senior executive Maurice Lenders told the conference, “Suppliers and customers must be open about what they have and what they need so that supply will be available to meet demand.” Urenco supplies enriched uranium to the market. The European consortium is currently constructing the first new U.S. enrichment facility in New Mexico.

Uranium Mining Stocks Analysis

Chart courtesy of www.theinvestar.com which tracks both Canadian and Australian stocks. In the Canadian chart, 43 uranium companies – each with more than C$40 million in market capitalization comprise this weekly index. The Australian Index tracks 25 companies, which own uranium assets.
Matthew Smith of TheInvestar.com reported, “I think that a correction may be underway in the uranium sector right now as the index tried and failed two times to break through the 325 level and hold.” Smith explained, “A correction is due, and it seems that many of the stocks with Australian exposure may at this time be overbought on the speculation of the vote on the country’s ‘Three Mines Policy.’”

We asked about Peter Farmer’s comments on the day before the company announced Denison Mines would be trading on the American Stock Exchange. Smith speculated, “I believe they indicate he is simply trying to talk down prices.” Smith pointed out the Denison chief executive was referring to “properties in the early development stage.”

Smith added that oil executives have been making these statements since the uranium price was in the $15/pound range all the way up. Earlier this week, Exelon Corp’s Jim Malone had voiced similar concerns the uranium price was unsustainable in a guest commentary for Fuel Cycle Week magazine. Malone also wondered in his editorial whether speculators were intentionally driving the uranium price higher to bolster the value of uranium mining stocks. Both appear to question the speculative value of the hundreds of uranium juniors which have jumped on the bandwagon over the past year. These sentiments agree with the conclusion of Yellowcake Mining director Dr. Robert Rich we found in a previously published interview.

Smith explained, “It is simply the conservative nature of the executives not to let expectations get out of hand.” These are sentiments expressed over the past few months by Uranium One’s Neal Froneman and Paladin Resources’ John Borshoff. As a market watcher, but not a registered investment advisor, Smith counseled, “When markets begin to look as though they may be overbought, it is best to go to those companies with good valuations.”

Smith’s sources told him, “We are hearing rumblings throughout the industry that Areva and the Japanese are beginning to get very aggressive in trying to form joint ventures on projects with actual deposits.” He concluded, “This should help propel those near-term producers over the summer if any new deals are announced.” Smith told StockInterview, “One of the major keys of the industry seems to be trying to figure out what these deposits are actually worth in today’s dollars.”

Smith’s top Australian uranium mining favorites include PepinNini Minerals and Berkeley Resources. He said of Berkeley, “They have great deposits in Europe, and Areva is supporting their efforts there.” Smith is betting on the Spanish government lifting the state restrictions on the uranium resources. In a similar situation is Mawson Resources, which Smith also favors and is also awaiting the lifting of Spain’s state mineral reserves restriction.

He also favors Strathmore Minerals and UR-Energy because of their U.S. uranium holdings and ‘top-notch technical teams.’ Smith said, “Both companies are presenting investors with a great buying opportunity and present good valuations relative to their peers. Smith looks to UR-Energy as a buyout candidate and to Strathmore Minerals because of its possible joint venture with a major international company. Smith disclosed to StockInterview that he has invested in the above companies.
WEBSITES and Trading Symbols of companies
featured in this article:
Berkeley Resources
Denison Mines
Exelon Corp
Mawson Resources
Paladin Resources Limited
PepinNini Minerals
Strathmore Minerals
Uranium One
UR-Energy
Yellowcake Mining
The 304-page trade softcover edition of “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market,” is available online by visiting:  http://bookstore.stockinterview.com  and is now offered on Amazon.com by visiting http://www.amazon.com

Finally, the new update to StockInterview’s “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market.” The completely updated CD-ROM version offers uranium price guidance for 2007-2008 and a special ‘How to Choose Uranium Stocks in 2007.’ Also included are outlooks for production and potential future problems at several major uranium mines; the outlook for Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan, the United States, Africa and elsewhere. We also included a safe haven basket of uranium companies. How high do we expect spot uranium to reach and when will the spot uranium price likely peak? It’s all in the new CD-ROM book. Pre-orders will be accepted via mail and fax to (941) 870-3096 but credit cards will not be charged until shipment. Order form

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